IBM CEO Says Automation Won't Decimate Job Market

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IBM CEO Says Automation Won’t Decimate Job Market

IBM CEO Virginia Rometty was interviewed on Tuesday at the Gartner Symposium, Orlando, Fla., by Gartner Vice President and Fellow Daryl C. Plummer, left, and Bryan Britz, Gartner managing vice president. ENLARGE

By
Steven Rosenbush
Oct. 6, 2015 12:20 p.m. ET

ORLANDO, Fla.—The rise of cognitive technology, or machines that can approximate the way people think, will lead to big changes in how people work and in the economy itself, International Business Machines Corp. CEO Virginia Rometty said Tuesday.

“This is not about replacing people. It is about augmenting what man does…this helps us do things we couldn’t do,” Ms. Rometty said Tuesday at the Gartner Symposium, a gathering of CIOs and business technology professionals.

IBM made news today with the announcement of a new 2,000-person consulting unit, the Cognitive Business Solutions Group, that will help businesses make use of Watson , a decision-support platform the company hopes to apply to a range of industries such as health care. The thesis is that there’s too much information for even a well-educated professional in health or law or just about any area to master, and the artificial intelligence and other algorithms at the heart of Watson can provide answers far more quickly than can the human mind.

The prospect of technology-driven job destruction is a matter of great debate for many scientists, technologists, and economists, some of whom predict massive losses in the labor market. In the past, new technology has destroyed jobs and created new ones, but some experts wonder if the increasing power of information technology will leave relatively less and less for people to do.

“The economic challenge of the future will not be producing enough. It will be providing enough good jobs,” former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summersargued last year in The Wall Street Journal. “Technology is allowing the production of far more output with far fewer people.”

Ms. Rometty isn’t among the doomsayers. “Eventually, everyone will have some skills around data science and data. It will change the way we educate people. You begin to create whole new sets of jobs. I see that with utility workers. I see that in all different kinds of ways…Individual jobs become richer,” she said.

That isn’t to say what IBM refers to as cognitive technology won’t lead to massive changes. Cognitive technology “changes the basis of economic competition,” she said.

In the near future, all businesses will be digital, and cognitive technology will provide a basis for competitive advantage, as companies figure out new ways to take advantage of it, according to Ms. Rometty. “Digital is necessary, but not sufficient. Once you are digital, this is how you differentiate,” she said. “It will scale expertise…it will change the way you engage with customers. It will change processes. I see this as very differentiating. Everyone who has lived through disruption, I think is ready to be the disrupter. I think this allows you to take the lead.”


The link of this article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/ibm-ceo-says-automation-wont-decimate-job-market-1444148456

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Automation will not necessarily decimate the job market, but for sure it will change its structure. Those low end jobs which can be easily replaced by artificial intelligence will be reduced. Instead, new sets of high-tech jobs will be created. The question is, can the people who are released from the low end jobs fill the new job opportunities created which are more tech-related? The answer is no. Apparently, there is a gap between the job market demand and the current labor supply due to mismatch in skill sets. How can we bridge the gap? It is necessary to adjust our education so that more and more people will be able to do the new high-tech jobs. Only when the labor pool structure changes in accordance to the job market structure, the employment will not be affected.

IBM CEO Says Automation Won't Decimate Job Market

“Huge era of digital technology and artificial intelligence that bring positive change has arrived, it also shows the result of causing a lot of negative effects, such as unemployment. "-《The Second Machine Age》
Cognitive technology is the macro background of Watson’ rapid development, in recent years, it is widely used in the medical and financial field, which has once again proven cognitive technology has a broad space for development.
Man-machine confrontation began in 2011, today when we look at the problem of cognitive technology, it can bring us more enlightenment.
Firsly, the cognitive technology is a double-edged sword, it is mainly manifested in two aspects. On the one hand, with the sustainable development of the cognitive technology toward commercialization, the advantage of cognitive technology have brought out, such as the sharing of information resources, the life convenience, efficiency and output, and so on. On the other hand, some industries will be eliminated, and some of the job will be replaced.
Secondly, cognitive technique need people to have a correct understanding and take effective solutions accordingly. the cognitive technology cannot completely replace artificial, it is just one aspect. For human beings, there are even more areas and more blue ocean need to be explored, people may find more jobs through positive innovation.
At last, we have to acknowledge that the essence of the technology is serving for the people instead of injuring the people. People can prevent troubles through the top-level design as early as possible.

First of all , it's definitely a great progress for techonologies breakthrough, particular in healthcare and financial areas, artificial intelligence as the articles indicates that could augment effectiveness of what people do in these research and R&D. However, I hardly agree with the point that automation won't decimate job market. Because it takes quite lots of time to educate people to be well-digitalized and data analyze in a short time if congitive information will change the basis of economic competition. That means some people have to face with the challenge that he will lose the job that replaced by machine if he doesn't have the capability in digital knowlege. In other words, we have to change and be differetiated, either step into jobs which have yet instead by automation or rich our minds to be digital.

Some people are holding a negative opinion to future job market for they believe the automation will lead to more and more low level labor will lose their work for being replaced by cognitive technology. The author does not think it will happen and instead the rise of automation will bring more jobs but will be more intellectual and creative. It is easy to understand of the trend that we should not look forward with a legacy mindset. If we look back one hundred years ago, almost all the work are based on handmade workforce, such as communication, manufacture, transportation, etc.. Nowadays, most of these kind of jobs have gone or replaced by jobs which need less workforce. However, more job opportunities are created and the skills and intellectual required for these positions are more complicate and elaborate. Also, it will be a good news for the human beings of the change as it will bring more opportunities for them to develop brains and ability to work on these creative work and impel the technology development moving forward.

It was not strange in history that every technological revolution might lead to changes of industrial structure and labor power structure. Considering the digital revolution has affected current world economy, even international political landscape,the job market will be inevitably changed.
The key issue is that how can digital technology breakthrough, especially artificial intelligence affect job market. In the short term, some labor-intensive industries will bear the brunt. This is way Germany raised the concept of Industry 4.0 and China is pursuing digitization and informatization of industry .During this process ,some low value jobs may disappear or be displaced by artificial intelligence.
In the long term, the government should guide the industry to fit the trend of development, and train more high value labor power to occupy the new jobs. On the other hand, I believe that technology in its nature will benefit economy and our life,It will also create new types of job which will eventually be applied to job-wanted people.

Most economists, scientists and technologists are worrying about unemployment raising from the replacement of cognitive technology and machines, while the CEO of IBM, Ms. Virginia Rometty holds the opposite opinion, “it is not about replacing people, it is about augmenting what man does, this helps us do things we couldn’t do” said Rometty.

More and more artificial intelligence platform or cognitive technology such as IBM Watson will appear in the future, the machines are better than human brain in many ways, such as memory, efficiency in processing the information, etc. Everyone has to admit that this is a new era and a radical change, that no one could reverse such trend. The key point is how people adjust themselves to adapt to such change and to become more creative. I think people and AI or machine are not competing, but facilitating, utilizing, collaborating. The current education system has to be updated so as to help people.

With more and more jobs could be done by machines, individuals and companies could enhance their productivity, and the economy could become more prosperous. Human beings should take advantage of some irreplaceable abilities, such as adaptive, creativity, evolvement, etc.

I believe that employment rate of human labor will got unavoidable impact from the development and prevailing usage of cognitive technology and machines in short-term future. This seems bad because a lot of labors from factories and administration have been replaced by machines. But we think about it from the angle of the whole picture in large, the technology helps to increase the efficiency and production, which will be the engine of the social development. What can we do to the unemployment? This is a free competitive market, so labors can flow to other jobs that can’t be replaced easily by machine like service, nursing, training etc. I admit that this is challenging to the people who just jumping from their familiar work, but histories told us already individuals can’t beat the big trend of social development. It will be a transformation period when the new job segmentation building up. But in long-term, automation will not decimate job market but will change the composition of job market.

In fact, it is a lack of sufficient evidence of automation is how to influence the employment rate. Mr. Guy Michaels and his colleagues at the London school of economics of Georg Graetz, made a research on how to affect the manufacturing of industrial robot, they looked at 17 after the status of the developed countries discovered some interesting conclusions: indeed replaced many low-skilled jobs such as robot, but the influence of the robot was more significantly increased the plant production efficiency, and create the new job (translator note: can be understood as here, because the factory efficiency, to further expand the enterprise scale, thus can recruit more staff). Michaels concluded, in short, the idea that the automation makes the employment rate becomes decreasing argument is unfounded.

Automation to today's performance is not enough to have much impact for white-collar work. From the short term, the effect of the Automation also confined to replace human some work, but will not cause too much unemployment. If the Automation tool daily work includes data analysis, so the human can work in the more advanced. In other words, human beings now properly reduce the expectation value of machine intelligence in the future is very wise.
GB Zhangyanlan

As an opinion, automation won't decimate job market makes sense, because to decimate is to replace the human jobs with the cognitive technology or machines. Replace is a strong word here. Automation is likely to take those low-end jobs, mostly labor-related, emphasizing on the repetition and accuracy. But it won't take the high-end jobs requesting an independent thinking and calls for creative participation. Thus, in the future, we'll see more and more people are taking more sophisticated jobs leaving the simple labor jobs to the machines. We're starting to see the trend in the manufacturing industry already, which more and more introducing auto-robot to do the jobs which substantially reduce the human power and keep the quality steady.

Whether cognitive technology will impact the job market significantly remains to be seen. In general, with the development and application a new technology, reductions in traditional job positions are inevitable. However, the advent of new technology can always open a door to a new set of working opportunities. For example, the cognitive technology may require a large quantity of software engineering employees to provide technical support online. These positions may not exist ever before. Some traditional positions are being disrupted and finally disappear. What we need to do is to adjust ourselves and adapt to the new challenges, and to make us ready for the new positions emerging from the disruptions. The earlier we realize the pressure and the potential threat in the coming disruptions, the faster we can take a leading position in the future competitions.

With the development of the cognitive technology, some kinds of job sets might even disappear in the world in the future. Like the jobs that reply too much on the information and technology skill. In that kind of area, robot might replace the human beings.

However, I believe there are still many jobs that needs human rather than technology, like the service and hospitality industry. Moreover, just like Ms Roomette said, it will create new sets of jobs. Technology will help people to be more efficient and scale expertise. It will also change peoples’ education way because it will be easier and quicker for people to get information and knowledge.

With the rise of cognitive technology, or machines that can approximate the way people think, the machines might replace the human beings in the talent market in the future. In my opinion, firstly, it could be substitute for simple human thinking mind and operation, not all the job of people. The creative, personalized, innovating job can’t be replaced in short term period. Secondly, the mass scale production of machine would be considered to result of loss of job in society, probably small scale from advanced society. Thirdly, it would cause the colder and colder of people communication, interaction and relationship due to a mount of machines.

Yes, it is agreed. To my point of view it is as an AI retrieval system based on fuzzy theory, big data and cloud system. When a person has a question, especially he is not a professional, the system may check the data base which covers all the data that connects the field, according to his or her background info the system picks up the necessary info and then come up a conclusion. The key part is the system can’t supply the basic data which based on human experience and thinking, all this should or has to be done by human.

" Automation Won't Decimate Job Market" but will change the pattern of job market, further will change the business or economic structure. I personally have a detailed studies on "Industry 4.0" since this year, whose main conclusion would described as: automation will enhance the efficiency of production and business model would turned into more digital related. Based on this trends, more skillful and intellectual job will be offered in the market, replacing the previous low value jobs. To win the new competition in the job market, the only way can we do is prepaid us be digital, be adaptable and be fast learning.

" Automation Won't Decimate Job Market" is not a kind of comfort, but on the opposite , also is not just to scare people. This is just one remind from cognitive trends that we, human beings should try to change live and work style, in order to avoid to lose job and be replaced by AI or cognitive technology. Don't be over pessimistic and optimistic. Just be active to change the ability and be differentiating. We still can be live though the impact of new technology era and even better unless you can be the disrupter.

It's no doubt that some artificial work will be substituted by machines, the automation in some industry could improve the efficiency, accuracy, and reduce industrial hurt and cost. Some workers could lose their jobs because of the automation, automation requires professional skills which should shed lights on education to adapt with the tendency. The cognitive technology will generate new jobs, which could differentiate from others. Automation could mechanize, integrate the industry, but could never replace the wisdom and creativity of human beings. To promote the automation will allow people to conduct with more valuable works.

After reading the article, there are two things impressed me .
First is the new concept raised by IBM CEO Virginia Rometty. In 2004, IBM sold its PC business to Lenovo. Although the action made IBM transform into a high- profit company specialized in enterprise business, it lost the chance to made headway of customer-orientated technology development and economic innovation. Fortunately, the emerging of the Big Data technology brings IBM a chance to reconnect the customers. Because the Big Data technology is based on the social unstructured data. With the use of cognitive computer system, Watson, IBM might inspire an innovation of cognitive to the market and itself.
Second is the transformation of job marketing and economy. As Ms. Rometty said, the rise of cognitive technology "is not about replacing people", but brings a big change to the future of job marketing. Under the future of digital economy, the talents should "have some skills around data science and data". In fact, there are always some sets of jobs disappeared, and there are always some sets of jobs created. So it is no need to worry about the threatens of artificial intelligence. The only two things we should do are maintain the ACCUV mind and keep the pace with the VUCCA world.

Cognitive Technology makes the machine possible to replace workers. Many labour intensive enterprise use the automation robot to reduce the human cost and killed a lot of job of low end. However, it can't decimate the jobs which require creativity, experience and high skills.
IBM created the Watson-a cognitive technology platform to augment what human does and help people do things they couldn't do. Using cognitive technology will make the company differentiating and more competitable. It creates new jobs and changes the basis of economic competition.

With the advent of modern times, people are afraid of the new technology. Such as the electricity is invented, people afraid that it will take away the job. But it takes more opportunities and more jobs. It enriched people’s life. Now my mobile can help me in so many sides. I can use it find the most famous restaurant. It say my time and help me effective make a decision. It gets more new jobs and help people focus on what they are good at.

There actually three steps about the impact from cognitive technology to the job market:

The firstly: Shock Stage
With rapid development of technology and economy, the cognitive technology emerges at the right time and offer more solution for the task just as fast as people and even more accurate. It seems that many job will be well done by computing, and there will be a big change in the job market, many labor will lost its position.

The second: Remodeling Stage
The new technology break the old work mechanism and build new model, meanwhile , the job market will catch the fast pace of change of digital technology, workers will have some skills around data science. Moreover, we begin to build whole new models of job system. That does mean the cognitive will decimate the job market, it is remodel it and even augment more high-level work opportunities.

The last: Win-win Stage
It is obvious predict that in future, all businesses and economy model will be operate by digital, and cognitive technology will provide a basis for competitive advantage, as companies figure out new ways to take advantage of it, and also requires increasing experts and more skillful senior technology workers, and these top talent will also improve and update the digital. As time passes, it will form a good circle for the technology development and job market. It is Win-win mood.

As a whole, technology indeed has brought more and more convenient and colorful life to us under certain moral boudaries and law requirements. I personally believe cognitive technology will also lead a positive result for human beings. In this way, we should be actively adapted to the new technology development.

In the related industries, for individuals, it is essential to learn the new trend and skills, prepare in advance and work with the new machines, even become the first experts in their fileds. Otherwise, people might fail to catch up the new modes of work .For government and enterprises, it is necessary to provide new training and adjust new organizational structure accordingly.

Some pain in job market may lead to social progress somehow.

Through thousands years of human history, man has been keeping innovating in order to make our life easier and better. We’ve been through agricultural era, manufacture era, information era and now we are transferring into the era of creation. History has proved to us that revolutions always led us further and better. It is human nature to hold on to the old, familiar things and we get intimidated by changes. But only by putting ourselves out of the comfortable zone, and pushing us to try new things and get better can we make a better self and a better world. Just as Ms. Rometty said - This is not about replacing people. It is about augmenting what man does… this helps us do things we couldn’t do.

From past years to today, the scientific and technological level of development has been a significant progress today. In the past years, no machine, no robot, people can support themsleves just by their hands. However, the low efficiency of labor just with two hands has been unable to meet the needs of human beings. It means it needs the machine, bring the efficient labor.
On the other hand, the machine can't think by itself. They just learn what the people says and directs. So some innovation work needs thinking by people.

Machines with automation is good a repeatable works, process, and straight forward cases. The good new to human is it is not mandatory to learn everything to ensure to get a job to feed yourself. But, challenge comes as well. There are two parts of challenge. One is human has to compete with machine to earn a job, which mean if you cannot find your value in society, you will be poorer than a machine. Another is the loneliness. there is few and few interactive between humans. Humanity will be aroused again for talking and service industry will be a high value added again. Human needs to change their common sense to get costumed to the new life style. However, the entry barrier is not that high to afford. From work for living to enjoy life without too much worries, it will be a new generation to mankind.